Turkey should pay the price for its choices
Ten days after the latest European Council meeting, there appears to be a new framework for EU-Turkey relations. The final text of the Conclusions was the result of tough negotiations carried out by the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and everyone in the Greek delegation. Moreover, the reactions of the Turkish side show that Greece achieved its goal.
Turkey could not divide Europe. In fact, the European Union exhibited unity, solidarity and resolve, sending clear messages to Turkey. Messages that Turkey can no longer afford to ignore.
The EU made it clear that it is no longer treating Greek-Turkish disputes as a recurring bilateral problem, but as a broader issue of regional security and geopolitical strategy on its south-eastern borders, and that, while it would prefer the problem be handled peacefully and through dialogue, it is also prepared to use other means of reacting if Turkey continues its provocations in violation of international law. And a specific timetable has been set for the European response.
Our partners showed Erdogan both the carrot and the stick. Turkey now has to choose between two paths: The path of cooperation, through normalisation of its relations with Greece and Cyprus, which will bring a new agenda in EU-Turkey relations. Or the path of violation of international legality, which will lead to alienation from the European framework and to economic sanctions. So, Turkey needs to choose and then pay the price for its choices.
Beyond EU-Turkey relations, however, the European Council twice took an express stance on Greek-Turkish relations. In no uncertain terms, it recognized that there are not multiple disputes to be resolved, but one and only one dispute: the delimitation of maritime zones. Erdogan’s narrative is no longer convincing. Neither Greece nor the Union sees any other dispute on the table for dialogue.
With regard to Cyprus, UN Security Council Resolutions 550 and 789 on Varosha are, for the first time, part of a European decision. And this express reference to these resolutions takes on even greater value following Turkey’s recent provocative actions for the opening of Varosha. This move now has Turkey facing off against yet another international organization, ignoring, in practice, the European and international urgings for de-escalation and, in the end, doing anything but improving its relations with the Union.
And Ankara needs to realise this, including with regard to the exploratory talks. If Turkey decides to follow us on the path of dialogue, so much the better. But it needs to prove that its willingness to enter into dialogue is sincere and not mere pretext. Otherwise, it should consider nothing a given in the future of its relations with Greece and the Union.
October 10, 2020